Deck Composition — The Foundation
ShanKoeMee uses a standard 52-card deck. Understanding the distribution of card values is the foundation of all draw decisions.
| Card Value | Cards | Count | % of Deck |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10, J, Q, K (×4 suits) | 16 | 30.8% |
| 1 | A (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 2 | 2 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 3 | 3 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 4 | 4 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 5 | 5 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 6 | 6 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 7 | 7 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 8 | 8 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
| 9 | 9 (×4 suits) | 4 | 7.7% |
Key insight: Nearly one-third of the deck adds zero to your total. This dramatically affects draw decisions — drawing on a 7 has a 30.8% chance of staying at 7 (no change) and a 69.2% chance of changing your score (with all changes being negative for a 7).
What Drawing Does to Each Starting Total
When you draw a third card, your new total = (current total + card value) mod 10. The table below shows, for each starting two-card total, what the possible outcomes are and their probabilities. Assumes full 52-card deck (in practice, 2–4 cards have been dealt, but the approximation is accurate enough for strategic decisions).
| Starting Total | Draw 0 (30.8%) | Possible Results | Best Draw Result | Worst Draw Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | stays 0 | 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (30.8%) |
| 1 | stays 1 | 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 2 | stays 2 | 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0,1 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 3 | stays 3 | 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0,1,2 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 4 | stays 4 | 4,5,6,7,8,9,0,1,2,3 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 5 | stays 5 | 5,6,7,8,9,0,1,2,3,4 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 6 | stays 6 | 6,7,8,9,0,1,2,3,4,5 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
| 7 | stays 7 | 7,8,9,0,1,2,3,4,5,6 | 9 (7.7%) | 0 (7.7%) |
Note: Because scores wrap mod 10, every starting total has exactly the same distribution of possible outcomes — each of the 10 values (0–9) is equally possible in the final score. The difference is whether that result is an improvement or a downgrade.
Draw vs Stand: Expected Value Comparison
This is the core reference table. For each starting total, it shows the probability that drawing improves your score, keeps it the same, or worsens it — and the strategic recommendation.
| Starting Total | P(improve by drawing) | P(same) | P(worsen) | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69.2% | 30.8% | 0% | Always draw |
| 1 | 61.5% | 30.8% | 7.7% | Always draw |
| 2 | 53.8% | 30.8% | 15.4% | Draw |
| 3 | 46.2% | 30.8% | 23.1% | Draw |
| 4 | 38.5% | 30.8% | 30.8% | Draw (marginally) |
| 5 | 30.8% | 30.8% | 38.5% | Draw with caution |
| 6 | 23.1% | 30.8% | 46.2% | Situation-dependent |
| 7 | 15.4% | 30.8% | 53.8% | Stand |
Notes on the table:
- "Improve" means reaching a higher score (closer to 9)
- "Same" means drawing a 0-value card (10, J, Q, K) — score unchanged
- "Worsen" means reaching a lower score
- These probabilities assume no information about other players' cards. In practice, with 2–6 cards already dealt from the deck, slight adjustments apply but the strategic conclusions remain the same.
Special Cases and Adjustments
On 5: the borderline case. With 30.8% chance of improvement (reaching 6–9), 30.8% no change, and 38.5% worsening, drawing on 5 is slightly negative EV in isolation. However, the actual EV depends on what you need to beat the banker. If the banker is likely holding 6 or 7, drawing on 5 is correct. If the banker revealed a strong hand (via other players' results), standing on 5 may be smarter.
On 6: situational. With only 23.1% chance of improvement, drawing on 6 is generally negative EV. The one exception: if you have information suggesting the banker is likely holding 7 or higher, drawing to try for 7, 8, or 9 can be worth the risk.
Zero-value draws. When you draw a 10, J, Q, or K (30.8% of the deck), your score is unchanged. This is not a "bust" — you still hold your original score. Many beginners misunderstand this. A zero draw is neutral, not bad.
Applying This at the Table
Practical rules derived from the EV table:
- 0–4: Always draw. Even at 4 (38.5% improve, 30.8% neutral, 30.8% worsen), the EV of drawing is positive because the gains are larger than the losses on average.
- 5: Draw, but know it is a marginal call. You are slightly favoured to not improve. Draw when you need to beat a likely-strong banker.
- 6: Situational. Default to standing unless you have specific reason to believe the banker is holding 7+.
- 7: Stand. The numbers are clear. Only draw if you have concrete information that standing on 7 will lose regardless.
For full draw and stand guidelines, see the Basic strategy guide and Third card rules.